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2030: backcasting the potential rise and fall of cyber threat intelligence
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2030: backcasting the potential rise and fall of cyber threat intelligence

Jamie Collier (FireEye)
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The year is 2030. After encouraging growth in the early 2020s, the cyber threat intelligence (CTI) industry has almost entirely collapsed. Many of the leading CTI vendors have gone bankrupt while most professionals working in the industry have transitioned to other cybersecurity functions.

This talk will explore what went wrong. The presentation will use the analytical technique of backcasting to create this imagined future and highlight the various hazards that could exist within the CTI industry. These include vendors over-hyping threats and resorting to fear-based sales, a lack of empirical rigour within intelligence assessments, and CTI teams ostracizing themselves from security and leadership teams.

The talk is neither a prediction nor intended as an industry hit job. Instead, it will provide an opportunity to reflect on where we are as an industry, anticipate potential pitfalls, and consider how the industry can improve.
Jamie Collier
FireEye Dr Jamie Collier is a Cyber Threat Intelligence Consultant at FireEye. He was previously the Cyber Threat Intelligence Team Lead at Digital Shadows and has recently completed a Ph.D. in cybersecurity at the University of Oxford where he remains active as a research affiliate with the Centre for Technology and Global Affairs. Jamie is also on the leadership team of the non-profit information security publication SecJuice. Jamie was previously based at MIT as a Cyber Security Fulbright Scholar and has previous work experience with the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence, Oxford Analytica, and PwC India.
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2030: backcasting the potential rise and fall of cyber threat intelligence

Jamie Collier (FireEye)
The year is 2030. After encouraging growth in the early 2020s, the cyber threat intelligence (CTI) industry has almost entirely collapsed. Many of the leading CTI vendors have gone bankrupt while most professionals working in the industry have transitioned to other cybersecurity functions.

This talk will explore what went wrong. The presentation will use the analytical technique of backcasting to create this imagined future and highlight the various hazards that could exist within the CTI industry. These include vendors over-hyping threats and resorting to fear-based sales, a lack of empirical rigour within intelligence assessments, and CTI teams ostracizing themselves from security and leadership teams.

The talk is neither a prediction nor intended as an industry hit job. Instead, it will provide an opportunity to reflect on where we are as an industry, anticipate potential pitfalls, and consider how the industry can improve.
Jamie Collier
FireEye Dr Jamie Collier is a Cyber Threat Intelligence Consultant at FireEye. He was previously the Cyber Threat Intelligence Team Lead at Digital Shadows and has recently completed a Ph.D. in cybersecurity at the University of Oxford where he remains active as a research affiliate with the Centre for Technology and Global Affairs. Jamie is also on the leadership team of the non-profit information security publication SecJuice. Jamie was previously based at MIT as a Cyber Security Fulbright Scholar and has previous work experience with the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence, Oxford Analytica, and PwC India.